ELEVATOR INDUSTRY COVID-19 SURVEY RESULTS ANALYSIS
Elevator World, Inc.; the German elevator association VFA Interlift e.V. and fair organizer AFAG, in association with Credit Suisse, recently shared results of a survey of elevator industry representatives on the current industry status and anticipated effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on business. Credit Suisse Managing Director and Head of European Capital Goods Equity Research Andre Kukhnin assisted with preparation of a chart analysis, including breakdowns by country, of the results (excluding China, as only three of the nearly 600 responses were from that country). Calculating results using a method akin to the widely followed, evenly balanced Purchasing Manager Index, observations include:
- Overall assessment of the current economic situation leans toward “challenging,” with 34% answering “bad,” 26%, “good” and the remaining 40% “neutral.”
- Industry associations are most negative in their outlook versus pre-pandemic times
- Manufacturers and service providers are least negative in their outlook versus pre-pandemic times
- Overall, the industry outlook is slightly cautious, with 29% expecting unfavorable development over the next six months, half expecting stability and 19% expecting favorable development. Respondents from Europe and North America were less negative.
- In terms of business outlook, industry associations are most cautious in their pandemic-era outlook, followed by manufacturers/components suppliers and consultants/service providers.
- The most-cited business-limiting factor is COVID-19-related restrictions, followed by economic uncertainty and lagging demand.
- Those in Europe and North America plan to maintain current levels of employment over the next three months, but those in the Asia-Pacific region do not.
- New equipment providers in Europe anticipate business to be up to 10% below pre-COVID-19 levels, while modernization providers, expect the firms to be only 3% below previous levels.